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The Numbers Game

January 12, 2012
Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning. -Benjamin Franklin
Do you know your probability of success when approaching a girl?  To put it another way, what percentage of girls you approach with the intention of banging do you actually bang?  If your goal is to rack up a lot of notches then you need to make sure your odds of banging are optimized.  You can break down this probability into 3 components.
bang probability= number probability x date probability x sex probability
The probability that you bang a girl is equal to the probability that you get her number, given that you’ve already approached her, multiplied by the probability that she agrees to go out with you, given that she’s already given you her number, multiplied by the probability that you bang her, given that she’s already agreed to go out with you. Girls who come on to you and one night stands aren’t considered here.
Each step in the chain is harder than the last.  Girls will give out their numbers relatively easily, but put up a bigger barrier for going out on a date and an even bigger barrier to get laid.  If you fail to get the number and the girl doesn’t have a boyfriend, then there is probably something fundamentally flawed in your game e.g. creepy, smelly, awkward, ugly.  If you fail to get the date, you probably didn’t make the girl comfortable enough during your initial interaction.  If you fail to get sex, your seduction skills are lacking.
I’ll use an example from my own life.  When I first got hardcore into game, my numbers were as follows.
bang probability (Old School Kane) = 90% x 20% x 50% = 9%
As I improved and began getting better, my numbers improved.
bang probability (Mid School Kane) = 95% x 70% x 40% = 26.6%
Before I took an early retirement stepped back from the game, my numbers had changed yet again
bang probability (New School Kane) = 95% x 50% x 50% = 23.75%
You’ll notice a couple of things.  One, I rarely ever failed to get the number.  In the last year I was in the game, I can remember only 2 girls who didn’t give me their numbers and both of them had boyfriends.  There is usually a way to get a number from those girls, and a whore girl who gives out her number to another man while she a boyfriend is usually DTF.  I’ll let you make your own ethics judgment on that. Two, my date probability went down while my sex probability went up between the last two time points.  My date probability went down because I started getting lazy about building comfort before asking the girls’ numbers.  I had so many opportunities that I lost focus and stopped putting in the effort necessary to build good rapport.  My sex probability went up because my seduction skills had improved.  I was lucky to come into the game with decent seductions skills so it wasn’t hard for me to figure that part out.  The probability would be even higher but at that point I had gotten into the habit of not taking girls on 2nd dates if they had been disappointing on the 1st date, even if I knew they would put out.
Think back through the girls you’ve approached recently.  How do your numbers look?  Where do you see an opportunity for improvement?

Ugly On The Outside

January 10, 2012

Your physical attractiveness is a minor factor in how successful you will be with women.  I don’t mean to imply that you can be fat and hideous yet still get laid, but you can be average looking or even somewhat below average and still get laid more than a handsome man.  This can be hard for men to understand because a girl’s looks are so important to us.  The fact is that being well dressed, carrying himself with confidence and/or being famous are as important to a man as physical beauty is to a woman.


Many men fall into the trap of believing that their physical attractiveness determines if they will be successful with women.  When faced with failure in the sexual marketplace these men immediately turn to improving their physical appearance.  They dedicate themselves to the gym and begin putting on muscle.  After some time in the gym these men believe they’ll be better able to pick up women.  They go out with the intention of picking up, but because they still have the wrong frame of mind they fail.  Many of these men eventually give up; they figure their face is too ugly, or that they don’t have the genetics to make enough progress in the gym.  They wait around for random chance to bring them some homely chick to wife up.  These men are losers.

While I recommend that everyone get regular exercise and eat right, a man is better served by dressing well, good grooming and confidence if his goal is to pick up women.  Six pack abs won’t do anything for you if your creepiness drives the girl away before she can see them.

The Joy of Being Single

January 5, 2012

Most men haven’t learned how to thrive by themselves.  Single men long for a girl to spend their time with and smother with cloying adulation.  Men in relationships prostrate themselves before their girlfriends, lest they be dumped and left without companionship.  Both types of men lack the courage to be alone.  They’re not comfortable being alone and need the crutch of a girlfriend.

If you can’t be happy by yourself, you will never find true happiness with a woman.  If you’re a single man looking for a girlfriend, ask yourself if you’re looking for a girlfriend primarily because you’re not happy alone.  If you’re a man in a relationship, ask yourself if you stay in that relationship primarily because you’re afraid of being alone.

Take a month to travel by yourself, no friends, no girlfriend, not even a pet.  Learn how to make the most of the world with only your mind and body.  Go to a country where you need to learn a new language to get by, where you can’t use others as a crutch.  Learn how to be self-reliant.  Learn to be alone.  Once you realize the strength you have within yourself, your ability for self-improvement, you will realize that most women add no value to your life.  In fact, most women destroy value if you let them into your life.  A minority of women do actually make you better than you would be by yourself.  When you learn how to be alone, you will be able to recognize these women and pick a girlfriend who deserves to be with you.

The One Who Got Away

January 3, 2012

It happens to every man.  He sets his sights on a specific girl but fails to get the notch, usually because he brought weak game to the table.  How can a man turn this situation around?  Be awesome and stop caring.

For a beginner, that can be hard to do but please trust me it’s the best strategy.  During the years I was deep in the game, I screwed up my fair share.  Always, it was because I gave too much away.  Most men who detect the hint of success with women will signal too much interest and turn the girl off.  Unfortunately, the instinctual response is to give even more in order to win the girl over.  The method that works best is to ignore the girl.  If she’s not satisfying your needs, she might as well not exist.

Somehow, I was lucky to learn this lesson early in the game.  There were situations where I completely lost a girl, but usually I was able to pull back and demonstrate my awesomeness sufficiently to win back her interest.  Interestingly, I seldom wanted it back.  I had the mindset that any girl that passed up the opportunity to be with me was just revealing her own low quality.  My mindset was that I was above the girl, and I was gracing her with my attention.  If that attention turned her off, she obviously wasn’t good enough to receive it.  So when the girls who had turned me down before saw me out with hotter girls and let me know that they were once again available, I usually ignored them; I was already busy with new girls.

The First Book You Should Read This Year

January 2, 2012

The first book you should read this year is Day Bang.  Roosh’s guide to picking up women during the day is absolutely groundbreaking.  In general, I recommend that men stop reading books, stop reading blogs, and actually go out with the intention of banging if they really want to improve their game.  However, Roosh’s Day Bang is an exception; he provides a framework for day game that is a quantum leap beyond what even most good players are bringing to the field.  Most men who are good at picking up women have a game that they’ve optimized for night pick ups, but they’re relatively weak in day game.  Day Bang teaches you more than you would learn in 100 day approaches of your own.  Buy this book.

The key to Roosh’s method is the elderly opener.  A concept so simple yet so ingenious that it would take the Einstein of game to figure out.

Best:  Elderly chat.  This is something a man who only does night game will never think about.  Men who are good at night game usually know you have to tone things down during the day, but they usually try to follow a watered down version of what works for them at night.  Elderly chat throws all that away and provides a completely different framework.

Also, I really like how Roosh set the right mindset for picking up girls within sight and earshot of other people.  Assume they all think you’re the most horrible person in the world so there’s no point in trying to save face in front of them.

Worst:  The emphasis on travel stories to build interest.  Many men haven’t traveled or have other stories that are more interesting than travel.  Those men should think of stories that appeal to women, rather than lying about travel or twisting around the travel stories they do have to make them seem more interesting. This isn’t a huge detriment to the overall quality of the book.

Who will benefit most from this book?
A man who already has a decent foundation in night game will see his day game improve greatly if he follows Roosh’s method.  There are so many missed opportunities during the day and a man who already has the courage to approach will clean up if he starts applying Roosh’s method.

Men who are looking for girlfriends will also benefit greatly from this book.  The quiet, reserved girls who most men prefer for LTRs are more likely to be found in cafes than in clubs.  Furthermore, most girls dream of meeting their Mr. Right at a random place like the grocery store rather than a dirty bar.

Who will benefit least from this book?
Men without the testicular fortitude to approach sober.  Unless you’re willing to go out and actually pick up, this book will be wasted on you.

Men without a decent foundation of game also won’t benefit too much from this book.  For those men, I recommend reading the original Bang or maybe even one of the Mystery books.

More Reviews here.

A forum for help using Day Bang material.

Why Your Game is Stuck at Beginner

December 29, 2011

Every blogger in the manosphere has an agenda.  As part of that agenda, most of us do want to help you improve your lives, but that means something different to each of us.  If you’re a game neophyte and you follow our advice slavishly, you will probably see significant improvement in your life.  You will be happier, healthier and get laid more often.

Eventually, you will come to a point at which following the advice of a particular blogger no longer improves your life.  It’s not that you mastered everything they had to teach, but rather that you no longer derive value from following their path.  The difference between what they teach and your ideal path is too great.


For all the wisdom we’ve gained being out in the field and sharpening our game, most of us are masters of only one thing, being ourselves.  If you read carefully, you’ll realize that most of us are trying to make you just like us, or at least how we wish we were.  Like an overbearing parent, we’re trying to live vicariously through you.


The late 30s divorced blogger who wasted his youth on the wrong woman.  He hates women and thinks you should to.  Everything he teaches derives from this one statement.  The young buck who has just recently hit his streak in game.  He gets laid left and right now and thinks you should emulate him.  Screw relationships.  At his age, I agree, but I’m not convinced all older men should try to emulate him, or even that 100% of young men should.  And what if you’re lucky enough to meet a quality wonen at the age of 23, not likely in the US, but someone has to win the lotto right?


So what should you do?  Don’t throw away the blogs.  Hey, I like seeing my words on this screen and hope you do too.  But you have to understand yourself to get full value from what we teach.  When a blogger offers up some gem of wisdom that will greatly improve your game, you should be able to recognize it.  Likewise, when a blogger offers advice that will only be detrimental to your goals, you should recognize that as well.  Just because someone you respect says you should do or shouldn’t do something, that doesn’t mean you should follow their advice without question.


Be a man. Make your own decisions.

Cost Per Notch Redux

December 21, 2011

Another post from Fritz.

I have been seeing posts on this less frequently lately, but there is still a big trend in the pickup community of focusing on the cost of sex. Everyone wants to know how much their notches cost them. Everyone talks about keeping your cost per notch low. I personally think guys get too far into this.  Roosh even introduced his “true cost per notch” ( http://www.rooshv.com/true-cost-per-notch ) idea where the cost per notch is simply your annual income divided by the number of women you banged that year. I have a really big issue with this concept.

Here are my reasons against this concept:

1)   You are punished for having ambition and hobbies. For example: Hot Carl recently switched careers and is now being paid four times as much as he was before. But will his number of notches go up four times this year as well? Not even close. So according to the “true cost” metric, he is failing. Except, he made this career choice because he wanted the lifestyle that came with it, not so he could get more chicks. I am another example. I don’t care as much about my salary, but I love what I do and purposely take on projects that are tough and that interest me. As a result, I am switching employers and getting promoted. My salary will double, but I won’t sleep with twice as many women suddenly. Yet, I want that promotion because I will get to pick better projects, and will get to lead people in doing the projects I want to be done. This ambition of mine has nothing to do with getting in bed with more and more women.  I also have a crippling addiction to working and flying planes. I waste a ton of money on this hobby. But I don’t do it for the women, I could care less what they think about my hobby. All this money I am spending on my hobby could be spent on getting my freak on. Therefore by the “true cost” metric, I fail.  Roosh, himself is guilty of this. I don’t know of all the man’s ambitions and hobbies, but it is clear that one of the things he is a fan of is reading. Roosh reads a ton more books than your average man. If you look at his book reviews, not all those books will help him get laid. And those are just the books he posts about. All that money he spends could be used to bang some random foreign chick.

2)   If you look at the “true cost” metric, prostitution becomes extremely cheap.  Let’s say you earn $25000 per year. (That is not a very big amount.) If you sleep with 10 different women in a year, your “true cost” per notch is $2500. You can hire a hot prostitute for $250! This means that you would have to sleep with 100 women per year to make picking up cheaper. What if you earn $75000 per year?  (Roosh himself quoted his cost to be $1400) I know some of that money needs to be spent to keep you alive, but you get my point.

3)   The “true cost” metric does not reward cheap dates. It simply rewards numbers. That means that if looking like you are rich is getting you that gold-digger poon, then you have a winning strategy. It does not matter that you only eat expired top ramen during the week, and have not seen a doctor in years. If you strap on the Folex watch, a fitted suit and expensive shoes, go to the club on Saturday and blow all your savings; as long as you get laid, your strategy is good.  Basically any money spent on getting some, is money well spent.

The “true cost” metric works for Roosh because he earns money by sleeping with women, and his main hobby is sleeping with women. But not everyone can be a traveling writer/lover. (Even if everyone had the skill to do so, the market would get quickly saturated.) And most men I know have hobbies that go beyond sex.

But for me all the other PUA talks about the cost per notch never really clicked. I mean I could never quantify the value I would get by simply looking if I scored or not. A while ago, I realized that I enjoy first dates. Once I graduated past the fear of performing well on a date, I really found pleasure in going out and meeting a new woman, getting to know her a bit. Add to it the thrill of escalation and sexual tension. And what if I did not get to the first date? Talking, approaching, teasing, telling stories, calling people out on their BS all those things teach me valuable skills that go way beyond dating.  So how can I put a value on the money I spend by just looking at sex?

There was only one blogger who’s discussion on cost of sex clicked with me. This was the now deleted “The Better Beta” blog. (The blog was good, but it died because in the end he was just a better beta, not an alpha.) His point was basically this: If a guy buys a used sports car for 10 grand and then drives the shit out of it for a year, would you then buy it from him for $15000? Of course not. Then why would you spend hundreds of dollars worth of time, food and gifts to sleep with a woman who previously had sex with a guy after a few hours of conversation, a cab ride to his place, and a few drinks from his liquor cabinet?  His only point was that it does not matter how much you spent, what matters is if it was a good deal or not and if it was worth it.

Back to the strategy of paying for it.  If you are dating a ton of different women and it’s cutting into your living expenses, you should probably worry about keeping the costs of your dates low. But otherwise it’s more than just cutting costs. There are stupid ways of spending your money: buying her a drink as an opener, showing up with a diamond necklace on a first date, hiring a hot PUA to impersonate you get her in bed turn out the lights only to have you jump out of the closet at switch places with him. Once you avoid the stupid expenses, the rest is about common sense and your comfort. Do you really want to go for a full 4 course meal at a place with a dress code? (Sometimes I do.) If you want it and can afford it, then go for it. But if you don’t believe in gourmet food and hate wearing a suit, why are you going to that place? If you feel like getting a steak, go get a steak. If instead you want to try that new artisan panini place downtown, go for that.  If you insist on having a good beer, go to a brew-pub or a place specializing in beer, but don’t go to a fancy martini place just to impress her when you gin makes you puke.

The point is, even though you might be paying for the date, you are really paying for yourself eating food doing things that you enjoy at a venue you are comfortable with. Spend money because you want to spend money on that thing, not because you want to impress her. Even if the amount you spent is the same, spending it on your comfort is better than spending it to make yourself look good because in the first case the mentality is alpha (you do what you want), in the other the mentality is beta (you do things to make you look better). In one case, she is part of your entertainment for the night; in the other case you are dancing for her amusement.

Also, remember, a well executed, adventurous date is better than simply an expensive one. And a dinner date at an expensive restaurant is worse than meeting up at a coffee place, going to grab ethnic food at a cheap but interesting restaurant, then going for dessert at a local café, followed by drinks at an interesting bar. The money spent may be the same (or a lot of times even less), but you just executed four venue changes, demonstrated your knowledge of the town, showed your adventurous nature, and your date lasted the whole evening and most of the night (with the added bonus of the perceived time distortion).

Finally, Kane always asks me to write ideas for girls as well as guys, so I will give you my thoughts on that as well. If you are in it for the free dinner (and some girls are), do whatever works. Dating beta guys and white knights is probably a good idea.  If you actually like the guy then make a gesture of intent to pay, but do not argue further than that, and don’t give him your elaborate explanation on your theory of paying for dates.  If he takes you to a really expensive place that is too much for you, mention that you can’t afford it. After dinner, at least pretend to reach for your purse. If he makes it clear he’s picking up the bill, don’t argue let him do it. Even though a lot of guys like to pay for dates (For example: I do. It is a matter of pride for me.), every guy will appreciate your gesture. It makes your reason for going out with him more genuine. And what if he asks you to split the bill? Well you were not going out just for a free meal, so what is the big deal? Giving him a long speech on how your philosophy does not match his when it comes to money and dates is not productive. Instead, enjoy the date and make a judgment afterwards when time comes to decide on whether or not to go out with him again.