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The Numbers Game

January 12, 2012
Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning. -Benjamin Franklin
Do you know your probability of success when approaching a girl?  To put it another way, what percentage of girls you approach with the intention of banging do you actually bang?  If your goal is to rack up a lot of notches then you need to make sure your odds of banging are optimized.  You can break down this probability into 3 components.
bang probability= number probability x date probability x sex probability
The probability that you bang a girl is equal to the probability that you get her number, given that you’ve already approached her, multiplied by the probability that she agrees to go out with you, given that she’s already given you her number, multiplied by the probability that you bang her, given that she’s already agreed to go out with you. Girls who come on to you and one night stands aren’t considered here.
Each step in the chain is harder than the last.  Girls will give out their numbers relatively easily, but put up a bigger barrier for going out on a date and an even bigger barrier to get laid.  If you fail to get the number and the girl doesn’t have a boyfriend, then there is probably something fundamentally flawed in your game e.g. creepy, smelly, awkward, ugly.  If you fail to get the date, you probably didn’t make the girl comfortable enough during your initial interaction.  If you fail to get sex, your seduction skills are lacking.
I’ll use an example from my own life.  When I first got hardcore into game, my numbers were as follows.
bang probability (Old School Kane) = 90% x 20% x 50% = 9%
As I improved and began getting better, my numbers improved.
bang probability (Mid School Kane) = 95% x 70% x 40% = 26.6%
Before I took an early retirement stepped back from the game, my numbers had changed yet again
bang probability (New School Kane) = 95% x 50% x 50% = 23.75%
You’ll notice a couple of things.  One, I rarely ever failed to get the number.  In the last year I was in the game, I can remember only 2 girls who didn’t give me their numbers and both of them had boyfriends.  There is usually a way to get a number from those girls, and a whore girl who gives out her number to another man while she a boyfriend is usually DTF.  I’ll let you make your own ethics judgment on that. Two, my date probability went down while my sex probability went up between the last two time points.  My date probability went down because I started getting lazy about building comfort before asking the girls’ numbers.  I had so many opportunities that I lost focus and stopped putting in the effort necessary to build good rapport.  My sex probability went up because my seduction skills had improved.  I was lucky to come into the game with decent seductions skills so it wasn’t hard for me to figure that part out.  The probability would be even higher but at that point I had gotten into the habit of not taking girls on 2nd dates if they had been disappointing on the 1st date, even if I knew they would put out.
Think back through the girls you’ve approached recently.  How do your numbers look?  Where do you see an opportunity for improvement?
2 Comments leave one →
  1. Maven3 permalink
    February 7, 2013 5:22 am

    95% #-close rate???
    This is serious BS – either you were approaching girls waaaaay below your league or only after super-ioi.
    From my experience in London daygame – 50% of cute chicks have boyfriends and are not available, 50% of the rest is simply not-in-the-mood or rushing somewhere.
    That leaves around 25% you can # -close if you don’t fuck up, practically around 15-20% of approaches.
    Those factors are simple out of your control and not much you can do about it (aside from being ripped or having model-like looks – nothing short of steroids/plastic surgery will help)

    70% dates from #-closes
    Another BS – same as above – either you are approaching uglies or very horny chicks.
    My experience – about 40% replies and 20% comes to actual date – thy are too busy with their shiny iPhones. Again, you there are some factors outside your control.
    Still a lottery, but little better – you can implement some text game gambits, make yourself interesting, etc. Building comfort or not seems to have little impact, the best is to schedule date the same day or the very next day (while attraction is still strong).

    40% fcloses
    Ok, this one is realistic. As girl comes to date, most of factors are in your control.
    Having good logistics, interestic date, good escalation – those are things you can improve.

    • February 7, 2013 9:18 am

      I was mostly approaching girls who had already given me a signal, but not necessarily a very strong signal. I had a situation where my reputation built a lot of attraction and I am much better than the average man at reading attraction signals. Even before I had that situation, my skill reading people’s emotions gave me the 90% number close rate. This isn’t something I learned from game, just the way that part of my brain works. I’m good at reading emotions and body language.

      You shoot from the hip during the day. I made surgical strikes at night. So take your 25%, pull out 15% that are definitely into you and run your game. You number close each one that you don’t completely screw up on.

      As for getting dates, again you’re gaming in about the worst environment for getting a girl to follow through on a date.

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